V. Loginov. TRENDS, «JUMPS» AND PAUSES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND THEIR POSSIBLE CAUSES

https://doi.org/10.15407/ugz2015.01.012
Ukr. geogr. z. 2015, N1:12-19
Authors: 

V. Loginov – State scientific institution «Institute of Nature management», Minsk, Belarus

Abstract: 

Trends, «jumps» and pauses of various duration have been observed in the global and regional temperature change. The emergence of quasi-homogeneous pauses in climate change, probably have something to do with the quasi-homogeneous periods in the development of general atmosphere and ocean circulation. The issues of pauses determinacy by external factors have been discussed: the concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols of natural and anthropogenic origin and solar activity, as well as internal factors: oscillations in the climatic system, which can occur without the impact of any external factors. The connection of El Niño and La Niño events occurrences with long term Pacific Ocean Oscillation (LTPOO), as well as the role of such events in the formation of «jumps» and pauses in global temperature change have been reviewed. Sixteen-year pause (1998-2013 yrs.) in the climate warming within the last 40-year period cannot be explained by the weakening of solar activity and changes in aerosol content of both natural and anthropogenic origin. The observed slowdown in warming and small winter cooling conflict with the theory of greenhouse climate warming, since the rate of greenhouse gases content growth in the atmosphere was the maximum, and the average annual carbon dioxide emission has increased by more than 30% compared to the last years of the previous century. Aggregate anthropogenic radiative impact in this century was twice higher than in the 70-90s, when the most intensive growth in global temperature was observed. This indicates that the internal climate system factor appeared to be more powerful modulator of relatively short-period (less than 20 years) climate variations than greenhouse gases.

Key words: 
air temperature, global temperatures, regional temperature, climate change, climate
Pages: 
12-19
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