Ukr. geogr. z. 2015, N1:12-19
Language of publication: 

V. Loginov – State scientific institution «Institute of Nature management», Minsk, Belarus


Trends, «jumps» and pauses of various duration have been observed in the global and regional temperature change. The emergence of quasi-homogeneous pauses in climate change, probably have something to do with the quasi-homogeneous periods in the development of general atmosphere and ocean circulation. The issues of pauses determinacy by external factors have been discussed: the concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols of natural and anthropogenic origin and solar activity, as well as internal factors: oscillations in the climatic system, which can occur without the impact of any external factors. The connection of El Niño and La Niño events occurrences with long term Pacific Ocean Oscillation (LTPOO), as well as the role of such events in the formation of «jumps» and pauses in global temperature change have been reviewed. Sixteen-year pause (1998-2013 yrs.) in the climate warming within the last 40-year period cannot be explained by the weakening of solar activity and changes in aerosol content of both natural and anthropogenic origin. The observed slowdown in warming and small winter cooling conflict with the theory of greenhouse climate warming, since the rate of greenhouse gases content growth in the atmosphere was the maximum, and the average annual carbon dioxide emission has increased by more than 30% compared to the last years of the previous century. Aggregate anthropogenic radiative impact in this century was twice higher than in the 70-90s, when the most intensive growth in global temperature was observed. This indicates that the internal climate system factor appeared to be more powerful modulator of relatively short-period (less than 20 years) climate variations than greenhouse gases.

Key words: 
air temperature, global temperatures, regional temperature, climate change, climate

1. Budyko M.I. (1980). The climate in the past and the future. Leningrad. [in Russian].
2. The impact of warming in the Arctic: report ASNA Coordinating Committee on the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. (2004). Ed. Cambridge Univ. [in Russian].
3. Opportunities to prevent climate change and its adverse effects. Problems of the Kyoto Protocol; Chief Editor Y.A.Izrael. (2006). Moscow. [in Russian].
4. Kislov A.V. (2001). The climate in the past, present and future. MSU MAIK Nauka. Moscow: Interperiodika. [in Russian].
5. Kondratiev K.Y. (1977). Modern climate change and their determinants (Changes in the solar constant gas and aerosol composition of the atmosphere). The results of science and technology. Meteorology and climatology. Moscow. 202. [in Russian].
6. Loginov V.F. (1992). Causes and effects of climate changes. Minsk: Navuka i tehnika. [in Russian].
7. Loginov V.F. (2008). Global and regional climate change: causes and consequences. Minsk: TetraSistems. [in Russian].
8. Loginov V.F. (2011). Global and regional climate change and its evidence base. Presentation at the Int. Sci. Conf. Global and regional developments, November 16-19, 2010, Kiev, Ukraine. Kiev: Nika-Center, 23-37. [in Russian].
9. Loginov V.F. (2012). Radiation factors and evidence of modern climate change. Minsk: Belaruskaya Navuka. [in Russian].
10. Silver J. (2009). Global warming. Moscow. [in Russian].
11. Sorokhtin O.G., Ushakov S.A. (2002). Development of the Earth. Moscow. [in Russian].
12. Sherstyukov B.G. (2008). Regional and seasonal patterns of changes in the current climate. Obninsk. [in Russian].
13. Climate Change 2007 (2007). The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third of Assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, WMO, UNEP. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. press.
14. Iwashima T., Yamamoto.R. (1986). Time-space spectral general circulation model, I-time-space spectral model of low-order barotropic system with periodic forcing. J. Met. Soc. Japan. Vol. 64, 183–196.
15. Kosaka Yu. Recent globale-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Yu. Kosaka, Shang Ping Xie. Doi: 10.1038. Nature 12534.
16. National Climatic Data Center: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/. Date of access: 03.02.2014
17. National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). Solar Indices Data: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/results?t=102827&s=1&d=8,4,9; http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/solar-data/solar-indices/sunspot-numbers/international. Date of access: 26.02.2014.
18. Peng Li., Ming-Dah-Chou, Arking A... (1987). Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2: simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model. J Geophys. Res. Vol. 92, N D5, 5505–5521.
19. Ramage C.S. (1987). Secular change in reported surface wind speed over the Ocean. C. S. Ramage. J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. Vol. 26, 525–528.
20. Roemmich Dean., W. Gould John, Gilson John. (2012). 135 years of global ocean warming between the Challenger expedition and the Argo Programme. Nature Climate Change. Doi:10.1038/nclimate1461.
21. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo. Date of access: 29.01.2014
22. Tollefson J. (2004). The case of the missing heat. Nature. 16 January, 2014. Vol. 505, 276–278.
23. Wigley T.M.L., Schlesinger M.E. (1985). Analytical solution for the effect of increasing CO2 on global mean temperature. Nature. Vol. 315, 649–652.