S.I. Snizhko, O.G. Obodovskyi, O.G. Shevchenko, V.V. Grebin, Iu.S. Didovets, I.V. Kuprikov, O.O. Pochaievets. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT CHANGES OF THE RIVERS RUNOFF OF UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGES

https://doi.org/10.15407/ugz2020.02.020
Ukr. geogr. z. 2020, N2:20-29
Language of publication: 
Ukrainian
Authors: 

S.I. Snizhko - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine;
O.G. Obodovskyi - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine;
O.G. Shevchenko - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine;
V.V. Grebin - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine;
Iu.S. Didovets - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany;
I.V. Kuprikov - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine;
O.O. Pochaievets - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine.

Abstract: 

The purpose of this article is to model long-term changes in water runoff in the Ukrainian Carpathians rivers as a perspective source of hydropower potential.The study presents for the first time a process scheme of the use of the Turc water-balance model for regional assessment of climate impacts on water resources which includes the following steps: 1) preparation of hydrological and climatic information for the studied object during the historical period of observation; 2) selection of climate projections that characterize the climate change of the study area for the long term; 3) selecting a reference period for calibrating the hydrological model and performing the calibration procedure; 4) validation of the model using historical observation data (retrospective); 5) modeling (simulation) of water runoff for the long term; 6) correction of results of modeling by the method «Change Factor (CF)» according to recommendations; 7) evaluation of simulation quality using the bias correction method. The scheme developed was tested on the rivers of the Carpathian region. The results of the approbation are compared with those obtained using the numerical model SWIM. It is concluded that, subject to the methodological recommendations outlined in the technological scheme of calculations, the use of the water-balance model shows quite satisfactory results.

Key words: 
water resources, river runoff, climate change, validation, calibration, correction
Pages: 
20-29
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