O.I. Lukianets, O.G. Obodovskyi, V.V. Grebin, S.O. Moskalenko, O.O. Pochaievets, V.O. Korniienko. FORECAST ESTIMATES OF WATER RUNOFF OF RIVERS OF UKRAINE ON THE BASIS OF STOCHASTIC PATTERNS OF ITS LONG-TERM FLUCTUATIONS

https://doi.org/10.15407/ugz2021.04.018
Ukr. geogr. z. 2021, N4:18-29
Authors: 

O.I. Lukianets - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv;
O.G. Obodovskyi - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv;
V.V. Grebin - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv;
S.O. Moskalenko - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv;
O.O. Pochaievets - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv;
V.O. Korniienko - Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv.

Abstract: 

The purpose of the study is to provide predictive estimates of the average annual water fl ow of Ukrainian rivers by the middle of this century. Such a forecast was developed on the basis of stochastic regularities in its natural long-term variability revealed from historical (observable) data. At the same time, the identification of the cyclic component and the formalization of long-term runoff fluctuations in the form of cyclic ones with the release of high-water and low-water phases of water content were carried out. To provide long-term forecasts, stochastic research methods were used: graphical analysis of difference integral curves, autocorrelation analysis, criteria for the series and the longest series length, etc. According to the results of the study, territories with synchronous fluctuations in water flow were identified within Ukraine. The first group unites the basins of the Vistula, Dniester, Tisza, Prut and Siret, Pripyat rivers, the second group - the basins of the Southern Bug, Don, Desna, Middle and Lower Dnieper rivers and the Azov river basin. Formalization of fluctuations in the average annual runoff according to observation data showed that the rivers of the first group have longer periods of water availability cycles ‒ within 29 ± 2 years than in the second group, where the cycles have a shorter duration ‒ 23 ± 2 years. As for the phases of water content, the low-water phase for the first group is 10 ± 2 years, and for the second group ‒ 8 ± 2 years. Accordingly, the high-water phases in the territory of the river basins of the first group last 17 ± 2 years, and within the river basins of the second group - 13 ± 2 years. In accordance with the identified stochastic regularities, predictive estimates of the water fl ow of the rivers of Ukraine are provided. For the first group of river basins, the low-water phase will last until 2021‒2023, followed by a high-water phase until 2038‒2040 and then again low-water until 2049‒2051. For the second group, a high-water phase will begin in 2020‒2022, and in 2034‒2036 it will be replaced with a low-water phase until 2045-2047. Basically, high-water phases in terms of water content are higher than low-water ones by an average of 1.3‒1.5 times.

Key words: 
rivers of Ukraine, natural fluctuations of runoff, long-term trends, water cycles, stochastic patterns, long-term water runoff forecasting
Pages: 
18-29
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