Libanova, E. M. ‘War Migration’ From Ukraine: Problems and Development Prospects

The article estimates the number and composition of migrants from Ukraine from various sources of information, identifies the extent and causes of information contradictions, and examines the prospects for the return of migrants The importance of different perceptions of the situation by migrants and those who stay in Ukraine is highlighted. The author describes the information support and the reasons for the existing contradictions. The migration prospects are defined in terms of the situation and adaptation of Ukrainians abroad, employment and unemployment, education, family composition, for example, the presence of children, the elderly, and chronically ill persons in the family, socio-economic claims, housing and sources of income in Ukraine, the estimates of current and future situation in different regions of Ukraine. 70% of Ukrainian war women-migrants have a university degree. Most of these women are already working. Their non-return would cause enormous damage to Ukraine’s human capital. The prospects for the return of external war migrants are directly related to the duration of their stay in another country, which, in turn, is a function of the war duration—the longer it lasts, the greater the destruction in Ukraine, and thus the more families lose their housing and jobs. The more migrants find work abroad, the more they adapt to a new life in a new society. Another risk is related to the possibility of a so-called second wave of war migration of their husbands. The role of migration as the main driver of demographic dynamics and labor supply in Ukraine is clarified. The external migration impact on post-war development will be very important. The destruction of infrastructure, business, and the settlement system is characterized by significant territorial differentiation. It will also be characteristic of the post-war structure of Ukraine. The main territorial clusters of post-war recovery are identified. The possibilities and channels of influence on external migration by various actors: the state, local authorities, employers, and civil society—are identified and formulated, considering the characteristics of each cluster.